The New Israel - 19-May-99

The New Israel

(Commentary by Yohanan Peres, "Yediot Ahronot", May 19, 1999, p.18)

Only now, two days after the elections, do we have the correct perspective to understand what has actually transpired in Israeli society. For the first time since Menahem Begin was elected, the electorate took a clear position on the question of who should govern the country and, to a certain extent, even laid his course -- not by force of legislation "from above," but through casting ballots. Thus, Ehud Barak enters office with greater public support and freedom of action than was afforded to Yitzhak Shamir, Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Rabin or Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Prime Minister-elect's greater freedom of action is the consequence of a clear shift among the electorate -- from the right to the center-left. All the parties which defined themselves as right-wing suffered significant losses; the National Union, the NRP and the Likud lost a combined total of 12 Knesset seats. The center-left, meanwhile, grew two new parties (Shinui and the Center Party), whose combined strength will exceed 10 seats.

These calculations demonstrate that the shift in Israeli public opinion did not focus exclusively on the leadership issue, but also on the proposed "path" -- whose virtue and importance Netanyahu continually emphasized. The Israeli public now demands that its representatives be more open to the West and the Arab world, even if this involves a territorial price.

The Israeli voter's position did not move only along the left-right continuum. A no less significant shift took place along the religious-secular spectrum. On the one hand, the electoral strength of the religious parties increased slightly -- from 24 seats in the previous Knesset to 27 in the new parliament -- but, on the other hand, there was a parallel shift among the secular public. In recent years, a new trend has been evident: the growth of explicit, aggressive and self-aware secularism.

The objective meaning of the election results is increased religious-secular polarization, despite the abundant talk of compromise and reconciliation. The religious public has drifted toward ultra-Orthodoxy. The secular public has become more secular.

The growing importance of the "religion and state" problem was most evident among immigrants from the CIS. The position of these immigrants on the moderate right-wing -- in a coalition with Shas, the NRP and Likud development town voters -- stood in opposition to a number of their basic interests. First and foremost, CIS immigrants are almost all distantly removed from religion and even tradition, which constitutes a basis for separation, and thus also for relative discrimination against those whose Jewish identity is equivocal. As a consequence, as the religious issue became more prominent and central within Israeli politics, the discomfort and tension felt by immigrants increased -- leaving them with the sense that they were not in the "correct" camp.

As all the religious parties, especially Shas, assumed a more nationalist posture, the stage made way for a new balance. The ability of Yisrael B'Aliyah to alter the balance of power was enhanced as the Netanyahu-Shas alliance became tighter. Ultimately, the immigrants were among those who marked the beginning of Netanyahu's demise.

And this election also holds a lesson for center parties: Three such parties appeared this time around, two new ones and a third party re-defined as centrist -- the Center Party, Shinui and Yisrael B'Aliyah. All three were gradually more inclined toward Barak and, in my opinion, their affinity for his camp will grow even stronger as time passes. It seems that the Israeli political scene always demands the existence of a "centrist" path -- but when it becomes a reality, it always get "sucked" into one of the camps (generally the ruling one), loses its unique charm and disappears from public conciousness in a few years (like Dash, Tzomet and the Third Way).

Israeli politics, as such, was and remains a busy street. You can turn left or right -- but if you stay in the middle, you might get run over in traffic.