Note: The translations of articles from the Hebrew press
are prepared by the Government Press Office
as a service to foreign journalists in Israel.
They express the views of the authors.
In Guerrilla Warfare, Small Is Great
(Commentary by Ze'ev Schiff, "Ha'aretz", Mar 2, 1999, p. A1)
Hizballah yesterday refrained from retaliating with Katyushas on the
Galilee after the IDF hit bases throughout Lebanon. But that shouldn't
fool anyone about the inevitable continuation of the fighting in the
security zone. Hizballah is avoiding a full-scale conflict with the IDF
that could hurt Lebanese civilians and by doing so, it is forcing the
IDF to drop its plans for the "rolling operation" announced by Chief of
Staff Shaul Mofaz. The IDF operation rolled backward to a stop. Hizballah
is following the classic rules of guerrilla warfare: After hitting a
strong regular army, guerrilla fighters should go into hiding, avoiding
the army's anger and direct confrontation. The guerrillas may later return
to the field, where they are much more successful. Thus, Hizballah
dictates the rules of the game in the fighting by focusing on guerrilla
attacks in the security zone using land mines and ambushes.
That's been its strategy from the start. After the Grapes of Wrath
operation of 1996, and the written understandings reached between Israel
and the Hizballah, the guerrillas returned to operation very quickly, and
within a short time managed to kill nine soldiers. From the IDF's point of
view, the main difficulty is that it has neither a full answer to
guerrilla warfare, nor even a reasonable one. The IDF cannot force a
decisive showdown with the Hizballah even if the guerrillas suffer heavy
casualties. In such a situation, Israel can expect a repeat of this week's
events.
The targets struck this week by the air force were mostly destroyed, but
it appears the Hizballah suffered few casualties. Even if they suffered
more casualties than they published, it's clear the Hizballah will do all
it can to avoid showing its wounded - and not only as a strategy of
psychological warfare, which it emphasizes in its strategy. The top
priority of the guerrilla group is not to reach a situation in which it is
forced to respond by landing Katyushas on Israel because it's now doing
everything possible to avoid direct confrontation and return to the
"little fighting" of the security zone.
The security leadership of Israel faced a problem yesterday. On the one
hand they could tell the residents of the north to leave the shelters, but
on the other hand it's clear to all that there will be new rounds of
violence in the security zone. And that's the way it will go until a
better way to protect the northern border is found.
[Translation courtesy of Ha'aretz English Edition]