Note: The translations of articles from the Hebrew press
are prepared by the Government Press Office
as a service to foreign journalists in Israel.
They express the views of the authors.
An Event Planned for Election Night
(Commentary by Ron Ben-Yishai, "Yediot Ahronot", May 19, 1999, p. A13)
The Katyusha rockets that fell on the Galilee two nights ago were, from
all indications, an operation that had been planned several days in
advance, not a response to the killing of two "Lebanese civilians" as
Hizballah claims. Apparently, it was a "reception" organized by Syria and
Hizballah that was meant to make clear to Israel's prime minister-elect
and his voters that they must give first priority to resolving the problem
on the Golan Heights and in southern Lebanon. Otherwise, trouble can be
expected in the north that will cut short Barak's days in power, as
happened to his predecessor.
This is not the first time that the Syrian president has used Hizballah's
Katyushas to send political messages. In recent years, each time a new
political situation was created in the region, and Assad had reason to
fear that Syria and its demands would be pushed down on the agenda of
Israel and the United States, he made certain to heat up the front on the
Lebanese border. Such was the case on the day that the peace treaty was
signed with Jordan in 1995, as well as last year during negotiations with
the Palestinians at Wye. Now, Assad is worried that Barak and Clinton will
place negotiations with the Palestinians at the top of their agenda, so he
he quick to send a painful reminder.
Hizballah has an internal Lebanese interest in firing Katyushas at the
present time. The organization's leadership has come under criticism in
recent weeks, over the fact that the people they are injuring are nearly
all Lebanese: SLA personnel and civilian residents of the security zone.
Now, when there is no danger that a flare- up in Lebanon will help
Netanyahu get re-elected, and when they know that an interim government
will not be quick to embark on a reprisal operation, they are taking pains
to correct the impression.
The assessment that this was an incident planned for election night is
bolstered when the circumstances of the Katyusha fire are examined. First,
it is unlikely that two young Lebanese would leave their village on the
edge of the security zone, at 11:00 p.m., in order to pick flowers. They
wandered about and were killed in an area from which mortar fire is
frequently directed at the IDF's "Dalat" and Beaufort Castle outposts.
This provides a basis to doubt Hizballah's claim that the two were
innocent civilians, whose killing constitutes a violations of the Grapes
of Wrath understandings and justifies the Katyusha fire. It is more
reasonable to assume that the two were sent to carry out a provocation
that would justify firing on the Galilee.
Second, the surprisingly short amount of time that passed from the moment
the two men were killed until Katyushas began landing in the Galilee
indicates that the rocket fire was planned in advance. Coordinated firing,
in a short span of time, of dozens of Katyushas well aimed at targets
across the entire sector, requires approval from Beirut and Damascus,
followed by a good deal of preparation in the field and coordination at
the local operational level. All of this generally takes a week to 10
days, at least. This time, it all took less than two hours.
Third, the Katyusha fire began with a "warning salvo," aimed at an
unpopulated area. This was done so that the following salvos, aimed at
Israeli communities, would not cause casualties and then obligate the IDF
to undertake a massive, and painful, response.
Fourth, the entire incident occurred only after the results of the Israeli
elections were clear.
Simply put: Hizballah once again managed to surprise the IDF with a
well-planned and well-timed blow, which enabled it and the Syrians to
achieve their objectives without paying a price.